本文从社会网络关系的角度出发，对网络讨论中的意见领袖、沉默螺旋和群体极 化现象进行了模拟仿真。研究发现：群体规模对讨论周期、活跃者发言数量、非活跃 者发言量均有正向影响；个人特质对群体讨论周期有正向影响，但边际效益递减；核 心人物的占比高低能够缩小活跃者和非活跃者在讨论周期和发言数量的差距；个人特 质与核心人物占比结合，将会显著引起群体极化现象；当网络结构发生变化，核心人 物对讨论周期和发言数量的影响将会更强；在无标度网络中，讨论周期和发言数量的 反转受到活跃者和核心人物比例的组合影响。

From the perspective of social network, this paper took the opinion leader, spiral of silence and group polarization integrally in a simulation model. The study found that the size of the group had positive impact on the discussion time cycle, the number of active speakers, and the number of nonactive speakers; personal character had positive impact on the discussion time cycle, but the marginal benefts diminished; the proportion of core fgures could reduce the gap on both discussion time cycle and amount between the active and non-active speakers; the combination of personal character and proportion of core fgures would signifcantly cause group polarization; the in?uence of core fgures on the discussion time cycle and amount would be more significant while the network structure changed; in a scale-free network, the reversal of the discussion time cycle and amount was in?uenced by the combination of proportion of active speakers and proportion of core fgures.