凭借精致的问题设计和测量，应用社会研究所的舆论研究形成了一系列关于传播与舆论形成的相关性知识。但这种知识却仅仅具有细节的精确，却无法实现研究者的普遍性、确定性承诺。本文以应用社会研究所舆论研究中测量工具最为成熟的《投票》为细读对象，检讨研究者个人主义的方法论、“刺激－反应论”舆论、传播观与其知识生产的相互关系。作者认为，《投票》等的知识困境，正是其方法论的预言自我实现。

Depending on elegant question-design and measurement, the study of public opinion in the Bureau of Applied Social Research (BASR) had produced substantial knowledge about the relation between communications and formation of public opinion, but such study only gained the precision of detail, failing to achieve the generality and certainty of knowledge as the researchers committed to. This paper scrutinizes Voting which had the most skillful measurement in BASR, to identify the relation between methodological individualism, ideas of public opinion and communication under the S-R theory, and the model of knowledge-producing. The author takes the predicament of knowledge-producing as a self-fulfilling prophecy through methodology used.