复杂系统视角下全球媒体与智库涉“一带一路”的议题竞合和舆论协同（2014—2024）

宣长春; 吴钧昊; 林婧

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国际新闻界 ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 80-96.

构建新闻传播学自主知识体系

复杂系统视角下全球媒体与智库涉“一带一路”的议题竞合和舆论协同（2014—2024）

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Dynamics of Discourse: A Complex Systems Analysis of Issue Competition and Opinion Synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative in Global Media and Think Tanks (2014-2024)

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摘要

以复杂系统理论为视角，本研究考察全球媒体与智库涉“一带一路”的议题竞合与舆论协同机制。利用计算传播方法，对78956条媒体文本和2090条智库文本（2014—2024年）进行分析后发现，媒体和智库讨论数量均呈现增长趋势且变化高度同步，媒体相对稳定积极表达情感而智库呈现更大的波动。媒体讨论数量对智库讨论数量存在显著影响，共建国家媒体对非共建国家智库有持续显著影响。主题分析揭示，在政治议题上非共建国家保持相对优势，经济议题呈现多元互动模式，而文化议题则展现出最高程度的互动性和包容性。“一带一路”传播中的权力动态变化和话语结构转变，在一定程度上挑战了传统的“中心—边缘”传播模式。研究结果为国际传播研究引入了新的理论视角，为优化“一带一路”倡议的国际传播策略提供了理论指导和实践参考。

Abstract

Employing complex systems theory, this study examines the mechanisms of issue competition and opinion synergy regarding the “Belt and Road Initiative” among global media and think tanks. Through computational communication methods, we analyzed 78,957 media texts and 2,090 think tank texts (2014-2024). The findings reveal that both media and think tank discussions demonstrate an increasing trend in quantity with highly synchronized changes. Emotionally, media expressions remain relatively stable and positive, while think tanks exhibit greater fluctuations. Overall, the volume of media discussions significantly influences that of think tanks, with media from participating countries having a persistent and significant impact on think tanks from non-participating countries. Thematic analysis reveals that non-participating countries maintain a relative advantage in political issues, economic issues present diverse interaction patterns, and cultural issues demonstrate the highest degree of interactivity and inclusiveness. The dynamic changes in power and discursive structures within “Belt and Road” communications challenge, to some extent, the traditional “center-periphery” communication model. This research introduces new theoretical perspectives to international communication studies, providing theoretical guidance and practical references for optimizing the international communication strategies of the “Belt and Road Initiative”.

导出引用

宣长春, 吴钧昊, 林婧. 复杂系统视角下全球媒体与智库涉“一带一路”的议题竞合和舆论协同（2014—2024）[J]. 国际新闻界. 2025, 47(6): 80-96

XUAN Changchun, WU Junhao, LIN Jing. Dynamics of Discourse: A Complex Systems Analysis of Issue Competition and Opinion Synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative in Global Media and Think Tanks (2014-2024)[J]. Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication. 2025, 47(6): 80-96

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基金

国家社科基金后期资助项目“全球媒体与智库涉‘一带一路’话语建构与传播效果研究”(24FXWB017)

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出版日期
2025-06-23
发布日期
2026-01-18

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