Dynamics of Discourse: A Complex Systems Analysis of Issue Competition and Opinion Synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative in Global Media and Think Tanks (2014-2024)

XUAN Changchun; WU Junhao; LIN Jing

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Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (6) : 80-96.

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Dynamics of Discourse: A Complex Systems Analysis of Issue Competition and Opinion Synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative in Global Media and Think Tanks (2014-2024)

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Abstract

Employing complex systems theory, this study examines the mechanisms of issue competition and opinion synergy regarding the “Belt and Road Initiative” among global media and think tanks. Through computational communication methods, we analyzed 78,957 media texts and 2,090 think tank texts (2014-2024). The findings reveal that both media and think tank discussions demonstrate an increasing trend in quantity with highly synchronized changes. Emotionally, media expressions remain relatively stable and positive, while think tanks exhibit greater fluctuations. Overall, the volume of media discussions significantly influences that of think tanks, with media from participating countries having a persistent and significant impact on think tanks from non-participating countries. Thematic analysis reveals that non-participating countries maintain a relative advantage in political issues, economic issues present diverse interaction patterns, and cultural issues demonstrate the highest degree of interactivity and inclusiveness. The dynamic changes in power and discursive structures within “Belt and Road” communications challenge, to some extent, the traditional “center-periphery” communication model. This research introduces new theoretical perspectives to international communication studies, providing theoretical guidance and practical references for optimizing the international communication strategies of the “Belt and Road Initiative”.

Key words

Mainstream media / leading think tanks / Belt and Road Initiative / international public opinion / computational communication

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XUAN Changchun , WU Junhao , LIN Jing. Dynamics of Discourse: A Complex Systems Analysis of Issue Competition and Opinion Synergy on the Belt and Road Initiative in Global Media and Think Tanks (2014-2024)[J]. Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication. 2025, 47(6): 80-96

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Funding

National Social Science Foundation’s post-funding project “Research on the Discourse Construction and Communication Effectiveness of the Belt and Road Initiative by Global Media and Think Tanks”(24FXWB017)