Pandemic Information & Pandemic Process: A Model for Computational Experiment

ZHAO Hanqing, GE Yan, YIN Chuang, QIN Yulin

Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 133-159.

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Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication ›› 2024, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (5) : 133-159.
Research Articles

Pandemic Information & Pandemic Process: A Model for Computational Experiment

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Abstract

This research used an agent-based model (ABM) to create a simulation system called MAP (Media and Pandemic) to explore how epidemic information influences the trajectory of an epidemic under various system conditions. The study found that even without other interventions, epidemic information alone can impact the course of the epidemic. The interplay between epidemic information and interventions like resource supply and lockdowns significantly impacts epidemic control, especially when resources are plentiful and lockdowns are moderate. However, the effectiveness of epidemic information is contingent upon the virus’ characteristics and doesn’t always guarantee better control. In conclusion, optimizing epidemic control requires a balanced approach: disseminating epidemic information appropriately, coupled with effective resource allocation and well-calibrated lockdown measures. This study provides a novel framework for examining the impact of epidemic information and enhances our understanding of its influence.

Key words

social simulation / health communication / artificial society / SIR model / pandemic information

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ZHAO Hanqing , GE Yan , YIN Chuang , et al. Pandemic Information & Pandemic Process: A Model for Computational Experiment[J]. Chinese Journal of Journalism & Communication. 2024, 46(5): 133-159

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Footnotes

1. 维基百科,参见条目computer experiment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_experiment),uncertainty quantification (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_quantification).

2. Geschke等人(2018)认为,回音室效应的产生主要源于三个层面(或三重过滤):在认知层面,个体倾向于寻找符合自身观念的信息;在社会网络层面,个体更可能受到关系密切者影响,形成同质观点回音室;在技术层面,算法推荐迎合个体偏好信息,一定程度上促生了回音室效应。

3. 信息对行为的影响并非仅受个体特征影响,疫情信息与个体行为和疫情状态之间的迭代交互作用,形成一个包含适应、反馈、递归的非线性过程。例如,疫情信息在初期可诱发保护性行为,但随着感染和死亡案例的减少,个体可能放松警惕,导致感染和死亡案例再度增加(Barbrook-Johnson, Badham & Gilbert,2017)。直至出现了有力的内生或外生变量(如感染率、死亡率大幅度降低或消失、特效药出现、封控措施明显奏效等),这种周而复始的循环才会被打破(Morens,Folkers & Fauci,2004)。

4. 一般认为,小世界网络能够较好表征人际交流网络的重要特征,常用于对社交媒体、谣言传播、疾病传播的研究中。参见Watts, D., & Strogatz, S. (1998). Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks. Nature, 393(6684), 440-442.

5. 从接触疫情到相关行为发生的计算方法中,使用浮点数还可以有针对性地表征更具特点的社会现象。例如:(1)表征信任度高,信息质量高,民众观念较为一致的社会,正态分布可以选择较高的均值,较小的标准差;表征信任度低,信息质量低,民众观念分歧明显的社会,正态分布可以选择较低的均值,较大的标准差;(2)表征对主流信息与局部信息信任度差别明显的社会,可以加大ƒ1和ƒ2均值的差别;(3)表征少数精英有强大信息判断和行为选择权利的社会,可设定ƒ1和ƒ2为幂率分布;(4)表征因意识形态、宗教信仰、党派对立带来行为对立的社会,可调整ƒ3的数值分布,如加大积极行为和消极行为选择的数值区间,缩小兼选两类行为的数值区间。

6. 需要原始数据,请联系作者。

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Generative Mechanisms and Governance Strategies”(21AXW006)
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